By late 2025, the available data and reporting strongly support Sacks’s directional claim that launching new VC funds—especially first‑time, solo, seed and micro‑VC vehicles—has become significantly harder, with many such players effectively washed out.

Evidence that it’s much harder for new / emerging funds to raise:

• PitchBook data show that in the U.S., capital committed to first‑time VC managers fell from about $14.7B across 318 funds in 2021 to just $6.5B across 97 funds in 2023, and analysis suggests more than a third of the 2019–2021 first‑time managers may never raise a second fund. (crowdfundinsider.com)
• PitchBook further reports that 2024 set a record low for first‑time fundraising activity, with only 56 debut funds raising $3.7B and emerging managers capturing just 23% of fund value—a 10‑year low as LP capital concentrates into larger, established firms. (linkedin.com)
• Q1 2023 data cited by TechCrunch show emerging managers raised only ~13–14% of U.S. VC fundraising, down from roughly 26–29% in the prior boom years, indicating a sharp relative pullback. (techcrunch.com)
• A 2023 survey of emerging fund managers found 91% described fundraising as difficult or very difficult, with 85% taking more than six months to close and a large share delaying future raises—clear signs of a much tougher market for new/small funds. (signatureblock.co)
• A 2024 survey by Citrin Cooperman on emerging PE/VC managers reports that fundraising remains a major challenge; institutional LPs (pensions, insurers) are relatively scarce backers and prefer established managers, and 63% of respondents expect capital raising to remain difficult through 2024. (dakota.com)

Evidence of consolidation and “washing out” of smaller firms:

• The number of active U.S. VC firms has dropped by more than 25% since 2021 (from roughly 8,315 to 6,175), while over half of all U.S. VC capital raised in 2024 went to just nine top firms. This concentration of LP commitments has weakened smaller VCs and narrowed funding opportunities for early‑stage/startup‑focused firms. (ft.com)
• In the U.S., first‑time managers’ capital and fund counts have more than halved compared with 2021, and analysis of vintages 2019–2021 suggests hundreds of first‑time managers are unlikely ever to raise a second fund—effectively a culling of many new/small platforms that launched in the boom. (crowdfundinsider.com)
• European data tell a similar story: the number of VCs announcing new first‑time funds fell from 66 in 2022 to 42 in 2023 and 34 in 2024 (~50% decline in two years), and McKinsey data cited in the same analysis show sub‑$1B fund closures and new-manager formation in 2023 at their lowest levels since 2012. (blog.joinodin.com)
• Commentary from investors and Cambridge Associates in 2023–2024 underscores that this period is a “tough, tough environment” for emerging and solo managers; LPs are scrutinizing younger funds more intensely, and solo GPs without a very distinct edge are described as having a “really difficult” time raising in this market. (techcrunch.com)

Nuance: solo/micro funds still exist, but the easy-hype era is over:

• Not all solo or micro‑VCs have disappeared. Carta’s 2025 analysis finds that 69% of new VC funds on its platform in 2024 were under $25M and notes “a surge in the number of solo GPs,” especially at the very small end of the market. However, it also emphasizes that mid‑sized funds ($25M–$100M) have been “the hardest hit,” stuck between friends‑and‑family money and institutional mandates, and many of the 2020–2021 micro‑funds were self‑funded or reliant on HNW capital rather than traditional LPs. (carta.com)
• A 2024 report on emerging managers shows that over half of new emerging funds globally are led by solo GPs and most target very small fund sizes (<$10M), but it also documents substantial delays, cancellations, and fundraising difficulties tied to limited LP access and macro uncertainty—again indicating that, while some new solo/micro funds still launch, doing so has become meaningfully harder. (everythingstartups.com)

Assessment vs. Sacks’s prediction:

• Sacks predicted that “over the next several years” after early 2023, it would become much harder for new funds—especially solo capitalists, seed funds and micro‑VCs—to get started, and that a lot of that cohort would be “washed away.”
• By late 2025, the data show: (1) sharply lower fundraising volume and share for first‑time and emerging managers, (2) record‑low counts of debut funds, (3) a material decline in the number of active VC firms, and (4) clear evidence that many boom‑era emerging/solo managers cannot raise follow‑on funds.

Even though solo and micro‑VC funds have not vanished and some new ones still form, the environment is decisively more difficult and many hype‑driven or marginal funds have effectively been culled or frozen out of the market. On balance, that matches the core thrust of Sacks’s prediction, so it is best judged right.