Last updated Nov 29, 2025
economy
There is a high likelihood that the overall U.S. (or global) economy will enter a recession at some point later in 2023.
I still think there's a really good chance of recession later this year, but it almost doesn't matter for you.View on YouTube
Explanation

Based on standard definitions, the U.S. and global economies did not enter recession in 2023.

  • United States: The official arbiter of U.S. recessions is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). As of now, NBER has not declared a recession for any period in 2023. Instead, U.S. real GDP grew about 2.5% for 2023, and the labor market remained relatively strong, with unemployment mostly between about 3.4–3.9% during the year—levels inconsistent with a typical recessionary downturn. (Growth and jobs data are summarized in official releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.)
  • Global economy: The IMF and World Bank did not classify 2023 as a global recession. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook showed positive global real GDP growth in 2023 (on the order of 3%), describing a "slow" or "weak" recovery, but not a contraction consistent with a global recession.

Because neither the U.S. nor the global economy actually entered a recession later in 2023, Sacks’s prediction that there was a “really good chance of recession later this year” did not come true, so it is best scored as wrong rather than inconclusive or ambiguous.