As of November 30, 2025, the prediction has not clearly come true yet, but events are moving in its general direction and the final structure is still being negotiated.

Key facts:

1. Congress forced a divest-or-ban decision. The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA), signed in April 2024, requires ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations or face a nationwide ban, with divestment deadlines falling in January 2025 and then extended by the incoming Trump administration. This is the main driver for a restructuring of TikTok’s U.S. business. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. Current TikTok U.S. corporate structure is still ByteDance‑controlled. Court filings in TikTok Inc. v. Garland describe TikTok’s U.S. arm (TikTok, Inc. in California and TikTok U.S. Data Security Inc. in Delaware) as wholly owned within the ByteDance corporate family and technically integrated with the global TikTok platform. These entities were set up mainly to mitigate data‑security concerns (e.g., TTUSDS partnering with Oracle), not to spin U.S. operations into an independently owned U.S. company with ByteDance as a mere passive investor. (caselaw.findlaw.com)

3. A new U.S.-based TikTok entity with majority U.S. ownership is being negotiated but not yet fully implemented. In September 2025, reports and official statements outlined a framework where a new American company would take over TikTok’s U.S. operations, with a consortium led by Oracle, Silver Lake, and other U.S. investors holding roughly 65–80% and ByteDance’s Chinese shareholders under 20%. This entity is to be U.S.-based, with a predominantly American board and Oracle managing operations, U.S. user data, and a licensed version of the recommendation algorithm. However, these reports consistently describe the deal as proposed, being finalized, or subject to completion within a future 90–120 day window, i.e., into late 2025 or early 2026. (reuters.com)

4. Data and algorithm control are shifting toward the U.S., but via a licensing/oversight model rather than a clean transfer. Under the emerging deal structure, Oracle will host and secure U.S. user data on U.S. infrastructure and oversee a licensed copy of TikTok’s algorithm that is retrained on U.S. data. The algorithm is to be leased from ByteDance rather than sold outright, and TikTok’s U.S. app will run on a separate algorithm and data stack. This is closer to Friedberg’s vision of U.S.-controlled data and algorithms, but not yet a fully completed, long‑term operating reality. (apnews.com)

5. ByteDance’s stake may not be purely passive and non‑voting. Current descriptions of the proposed deal say ByteDance will retain <20% equity and at most one seat on a seven‑member board, with exclusion from the security committee and limited influence—but not necessarily zero voting rights. Details could still change before closing, so we cannot definitively say that ByteDance will end up with only a passive, non‑voting economic stake as Friedberg specified. (theguardian.com)

Putting this together:

• Pursuit: U.S. policymakers and ByteDance are actively pursuing a restructuring that broadly matches the outline (a U.S.-based entity, majority U.S. ownership, Oracle-controlled data and algorithm environment).
• Implementation: As of November 30, 2025, the divestiture and corporate spin‑out have not yet fully closed; deadlines have been extended, and major outlets and officials still describe the structure as in process or pending completion in late 2025/early 2026. The fully separated, steady‑state structure Friedberg envisioned is therefore not yet a settled reality.
• Details: Key details (especially whether ByteDance’s remaining stake will be strictly passive and non‑voting) remain unsettled or at least not publicly finalized.

Because the core restructuring is still underway and the mandated completion dates lie in the near future, it is too early to say definitively whether Friedberg’s prediction will be realized exactly as stated. Hence the result is **"inconclusive" rather than clearly right or wrong at this time.