The prediction’s explicit time horizon is “these next few decades” after 2023. Only about two years have elapsed between the podcast date (January 20, 2023) and now (late 2025), so we are far from the end of the forecast window.

There is some evidence that supports the direction of Chamath’s thesis—namely, that the world may be moving away from peak globalization toward more regional or local production:

• Analysts and institutions like the IMF and World Bank have discussed a slowdown or partial reversal of globalization (sometimes called "slowbalisation" or de‑globalization), driven by US‑China strategic rivalry, supply‑chain reshoring, and industrial policies in the US and EU that favor domestic production (e.g., CHIPS Act, Inflation Reduction Act). These trends suggest a move away from the hyper‑globalization of the 1990s–2010s.
• At the same time, global trade volumes remain high in absolute terms, and many global supply chains are adapting rather than collapsing. Digital services trade and cross‑border data flows continue to grow. This makes it unclear how far overall globalization will truly retreat versus simply reconfigure geographically.

However, Chamath’s core claim is not about a short‑term cyclical fluctuation; it is a structural, multi‑decade forecast about (1) moving away from a past peak of globalization, and (2) eventually converging to a lower, more locally oriented equilibrium with broadly shared prosperity. Whether the world ultimately settles into that new equilibrium—and whether prosperity is indeed higher and more broadly shared—cannot reasonably be evaluated after only a couple of years.

Because:

1. The prediction explicitly spans several decades, and
2. Current evidence can neither confirm nor definitively falsify the eventual equilibrium it describes,

the correct verdict as of late 2025 is inconclusive (too early to tell).