Jason’s prediction was that, absent a fundamental shift in how society treats fentanyl‑type drugs, problems like addiction, overdoses, and visible street use would “just get worse” from the 2023 baseline.

Empirically, U.S. overdose deaths have not continued to worsen since 2023. CDC data compiled by researchers show overdose deaths peaking around 110–111k in 2022, then falling to about 108.6k in 2023 and about 81.7k in 2024, with roughly 76.5k deaths in the 12 months ending April 2025—a substantial and continuing decline rather than further worsening. (en.wikipedia.org) Independent analyses report that 2024 saw about an 27% drop in total overdose deaths versus 2023—the steepest one‑year decline ever recorded—and roughly a 37% reduction in deaths involving synthetic opioids like fentanyl. (reuters.com) These are major improvements relative to the 2023 baseline Jason was referencing.

Local data from hard‑hit cities show similar patterns: San Francisco hit a record high in overdose deaths in 2023, driven largely by fentanyl, but 2024 saw roughly a 20–22% decline in overdose fatalities and the lowest monthly tolls in several years, even though levels remain elevated and there has been some rebound in early 2025. (voz.us) That again contradicts a claim that things would unambiguously “just get worse” from that point.

On the policy/recognition side, the U.S. has in fact increasingly singled out fentanyl and similar synthetics as a distinct, unusually dangerous threat. The Biden administration’s National Drug Control Strategy and subsequent fact sheets emphasize targeted action on “illicit fentanyl supply chains,” large budget increases for fentanyl‑focused enforcement, and national campaigns like Real Deal on Fentanyl, plus historic expansion of naloxone access and other harm‑reduction and treatment measures. (bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov) Legislatures have also advanced fentanyl‑specific criminal penalties (e.g., federal bills like the Felony Murder for Deadly Fentanyl Distribution Act) and broader tough‑on‑drug measures such as California’s Proposition 36, along with local crackdowns on open‑air fentanyl markets in cities like San Francisco. (en.wikipedia.org)

Social harms from synthetic opioids are still severe—overdose deaths remain far above pre‑2019 levels, street drug scenes persist in many cities, and new ultra‑potent drugs (e.g., nitazenes, carfentanil) are emerging. (en.wikipedia.org) But Jason’s core forecast was that there was “no path” and that, from the 2023 baseline, these problems would continue to worsen over time unless society fundamentally reclassified and policed fentanyl‑type drugs differently. Instead, overdose mortality and some related indicators have measurably improved over 2023–2025 while recognition and targeted responses have intensified.

Because the key observable outcome he pointed to—worsening overdose and visible drug problems from the 2023 baseline—has moved in the opposite direction nationally (and in major hotspot cities), the prediction as stated is best judged wrong.