Summary: Parts of Friedberg’s cluster of predictions have largely materialized (AI-written fiction from significant publishers, AI-composed music played by professional orchestras, and AI-generated films with wide online distribution). However, his 3–4 year timeline for mainstream text-to-game tools runs through ~2026–2027, so as of November 2025 it’s too early to fully judge the whole bundle.

1) AI novel from a major publisher in 2023

• In May 2023, Death of an Author by Stephen Marche (as “Aidan Marchine”) was released by Pushkin Industries. Marche has said about 95% of the text is AI‑generated using ChatGPT, Cohere, and Sudowrite; the cover and blurbs are also AI-generated. It has been widely described in major media (e.g., The New York Times) as an early or first “AI novel.” (en.wikipedia.org)
• Pushkin Industries, however, is primarily a prominent podcast/audiobook company, not one of the traditional “Big Five” book publishers; it does publish books but is mainly known as an audio-first media outfit. (en.wikipedia.org)
  Assessment: There was a widely covered, mostly‑AI‑written long-form work released in 2023 by a serious, well‑funded publisher, but whether Pushkin counts as a “major book publisher” in the sense Friedberg probably meant (Penguin Random House, HarperCollins, etc.) is debatable. So this sub‑prediction is partially but ambiguously fulfilled.

2) AI symphony performed by a major symphony orchestra in the near term

• Well before 2023, AI‑composed orchestral music was already being performed by professional orchestras. For example, the AI composer AIVA had works performed by the Avignon Symphonic Orchestra in 2017. (en.wikipedia.org)
• In 2021, the Beethoven Orchestra Bonn premiered Beethoven X: The AI Project, in which AI systems (with human musicologists) completed Beethoven’s unfinished 10th Symphony; the AI-generated Scherzo and Rondo movements were performed in concert and recorded for commercial release. (telekom.com)
• Post‑podcast, additional projects appeared. For instance, Spain’s national RTVE Symphony Orchestra performed two short symphonic works composed by AI at Madrid’s Monumental Theater on November 17, 2023—one rendered exactly as produced by the AI, another lightly rearranged by the conductor. (english.elpais.com)
  Assessment: If you interpret Friedberg as forecasting that within a few years of early 2023, a serious symphony orchestra would perform a piece whose musical material is primarily AI‑composed, that has clearly happened (and in fact had happened even before his prediction). The only quibble is that some early cases (Beethoven X, AIVA) are AI‑assisted/completion rather than entirely original AI symphonies. Overall this sub‑prediction is substantively correct.

3) Primarily AI‑generated screenplay → AI‑generated 3D/CG movie with broad public viewership in the near term

• AI‑written feature scripts:
  • The Diary of Sisyphus (Italy) is described as the first feature‑length film written by an AI (GPT‑Neo). It premiered at festivals in 2023 and was released in Italian cinemas in January 2024, though with human-shot live‑action visuals. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • The Last Screenwriter (2024) is a Swiss feature whose screenplay was written by ChatGPT; the film is live-action and was released online for free distribution after its planned London premiere was canceled. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Primarily AI‑generated movies with wide distribution:
  • DreadClub: Vampire’s Verdict (2024) is an 87‑minute animated feature described as the first fully AI‑generated animated feature film. All visuals, animation, performances, music, sound, and even some editing were produced via AI tools; a single filmmaker orchestrated prompts and structure. It streams worldwide on Amazon Prime Video and other major platforms, making it widely accessible to the general public. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • Industry is now moving toward larger‑budget AI‑heavy productions such as Critterz, a feature‑length animated film being developed with OpenAI’s upcoming models (e.g., GPT‑5, Sora), targeted for a 2026 premiere and explicitly marketed as a proof‑of‑concept for AI‑driven filmmaking. (techradar.com)
    Assessment: By 2024 there is at least one full‑length film whose script and all audiovisual elements are primarily AI‑generated and that is globally streamable, which substantially matches what he envisioned, even though DreadClub is 2D anime‑style rather than explicitly 3D CGI. Given how close the realized projects are to his description (and the trajectory toward larger mainstream releases), this sub‑prediction is basically fulfilled in spirit.

4) Within ~3–4 years (by ~2026–2027), consumer tools that let ordinary users create their own AI‑generated video games via natural‑language specs

• Several tools already point in this direction, but are still limited:
  • Buildbox 4 (2024–25) adds AI features like text‑to‑game translation, where users describe game elements in text and the AI generates assets, scenes, and prototypes. It’s explicitly aimed at non‑programmers who want to build games visually with AI assistance. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • Rosebud AI is a startup whose platform lets users upload textual descriptions of the game they want; the AI interprets this and generates graphics, characters, and game worlds, with creators showing off games made in minutes from prompts. (ru.wikipedia.org)
  • Niche apps like StoryGen let ordinary users create interactive visual‑novel‑style games from text prompts, automatically adding characters, music, and branching choices. (reddit.com)
  • Research and demos like Oasis, an AI‑generated playable Minecraft‑style world run entirely by generative models, show that full AI‑driven, code‑free game worlds are technically possible, though still glitchy and experimental. (en.wikipedia.org)
• However, these tools are still constrained—usually 2D, template‑driven, or requiring significant iterative prompting and manual adjustment. They do not yet consistently deliver the robust, arbitrary, high‑fidelity games most people imagine when they hear “describe any game you want and it appears.”

Assessment: The direction of progress matches Friedberg’s forecast, and early consumer‑facing text‑to‑game systems exist, but his explicit time horizon runs until approximately 2026–2027. As of late 2025, it’s not yet clear whether truly mainstream, widely‑adopted tools that fully match his vision will arrive in that window. So this part is still in progress and not yet judgeable.

Overall verdict:

• One component (AI symphony) is clearly right; another (AI film) is effectively right in spirit; the AI‑novel component is partially/arguably right but depends on how you define a “major” publisher; and the video‑game component’s deadline hasn’t arrived yet. Because at least one major sub‑prediction is still within its time window and cannot yet be definitively graded, the combined prediction set is best labeled inconclusive at this time.