Evidence shows that Ukraine did in fact launch a large counteroffensive in spring–summer 2023:

• Ukrainian forces began shaping operations and intensified attacks in May 2023, and on June 4, 2023, Ukraine formally launched what was widely described as a major or large-scale counteroffensive against Russian positions in southeastern Ukraine (notably in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions). Major international outlets and defense analyses consistently refer to this as Ukraine’s counteroffensive or major counteroffensive of 2023.
• The campaign ran through the summer and into the fall of 2023, involving multiple brigades, extensive use of Western-supplied equipment, and significant combat along several sectors of the front—meeting any reasonable description of a “massive” counteroffensive.

On the narrower interpretation tied to the original quote — “there’s going to be a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring” — this is straightforwardly correct: there was a large Ukrainian counteroffensive initiated in early June 2023, which falls within the commonly used military/political timeframe for a spring–summer campaign season and was widely anticipated and reported as such.

The normalized version you provided adds an outcome clause (stalemate or a return to pre‑invasion lines). That part is only half‑right:

• The counteroffensive did not succeed in pushing Russian forces back to the pre‑February 24, 2022 lines; Russian forces still occupy substantial portions of Ukrainian territory as of late 2025.
• However, the fighting largely resulted in limited territorial changes and a de facto stalemate along much of the front, with only modest Ukrainian gains (e.g., around Robotyne and parts of the southern front) and no decisive breakthrough.

So:

• If we judge strictly by the original prediction (a massive spring counteroffensive will happen), it was right.
• The additional outcome conditions in the normalized text are partially wrong (no restoration to pre‑invasion lines) but partially right (the offensive led to something close to a stalemate).

Balancing these, and given that the core, clearly articulated claim in the quote was about the occurrence and timing of a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive, the prediction is best scored as right overall, with the caveat that the more optimistic territorial outcome did not fully materialize.