Key elements of Jason’s prediction have effectively come true, even if the final transaction is still being implemented and the timing slipped slightly beyond 2024.

1. Escalating bipartisan U.S. political pressure in the 2023–2024 cycle
   In April 2024, during the 2024 election cycle, Congress passed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA). The law explicitly targets ByteDance and TikTok, and passed with large bipartisan majorities in both House and Senate before being signed by President Biden on April 24, 2024. (en.wikipedia.org) This matches Jason’s premise of strong, bipartisan political pressure focused on forcing action against TikTok.

2. Forced divestiture of TikTok’s U.S. operations
   PAFACA requires that TikTok’s Chinese parent, ByteDance, divest TikTok’s U.S. operations by January 19, 2025, or face a nationwide ban via removal from app stores and hosting services. (en.wikipedia.org) TikTok and ByteDance sued, but the D.C. Circuit upheld the law in December 2024, and the U.S. Supreme Court upheld it on January 17, 2025, confirming that ByteDance must either divest TikTok or see the app effectively banned in the U.S. (cnbc.com) That is precisely a forced divestiture under duress.

3. Sale rather than status quo; mechanism broadly matches “IPO or sale”
   Instead of an IPO, the chosen path is a sale and restructuring: President Trump’s September 25, 2025 executive order accepts a “qualified divestiture” plan where TikTok’s U.S. app will be operated by a new U.S.-based joint venture that is majority-owned and controlled by U.S. persons. ByteDance and affiliates are to own less than 20% of the new entity. (whitehouse.gov) Reuters reporting in November 2025 similarly states that ByteDance is in the process of divesting about 80% of its U.S. assets, with a consortium led by Oracle and Silver Lake expected to hold the majority stake. (reuters.com) That clearly fits Jason’s “IPO or sale” framing: it is a forced sale.

4. Chinese ownership “largely removed” from the U.S. TikTok business
   Under the approved plan, U.S. investors will control the new U.S. TikTok venture, and ByteDance’s direct equity stake is capped below 20%. (whitehouse.gov) While ByteDance (and thus Chinese ownership) is not completely eliminated, its role is reduced to a non‑controlling minority interest, and there are ongoing concerns over licensing of the algorithm. (reuters.com) That situation aligns well with the prediction’s phrase “largely or entirely removed”—it is largely, though not entirely, removed.

5. Timing nuance
   The compelling political and legal pressure that forces divestiture—PAFACA and its bipartisan passage—did occur during the 2023–2024 election cycle. (en.wikipedia.org) The concrete divestiture structure and implementing executive order came in 2025, but they are a direct consequence of that 2024 law. Given the substance of the prediction (that bipartisan pressure during that cycle would force Chinese owners to divest most of their U.S. TikTok stake via a sale), this is a timing slippage rather than a fundamental miss.

Overall, by late 2025 TikTok’s Chinese parent is under a binding U.S. legal mandate to divest, a divestiture framework has been approved, and control of U.S. TikTok is shifting to a U.S.-controlled entity with ByteDance retaining only a minority stake. That matches the core of Jason’s prediction, so it is best judged as right, with minor caveats on timing and the fact that some Chinese ownership remains as a small minority interest.