Jason @ 00:39:40Ambiguous
economymarkets
In 2023, as unemployment remains ‘sticky’ at elevated levels, gig‑economy and marketplace platforms such as DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber, and Etsy will benefit from increased supply (more workers/hosts/sellers), improving their business performance.
I think the, uh doordash's. Airbnb's, Uber's Etsy's of the world who need entrepreneurs, they need workers, they need supply… as unemployment becomes, uh, let's call it what it is sticky. You're going to see a lot more people participating in gig platforms… So I think they will be huge beneficiaries.View on YouTube
Explanation
Evidence cuts both ways:
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Macro premise ("sticky, elevated" unemployment) was wrong.
- In 2023 the U.S. unemployment rate fluctuated around 3.4–3.9%, averaging about 3.8% in Q4 versus 3.6% a year earlier. The Bureau of Labor Statistics explicitly characterizes 2023 as a strong labor market with unemployment remaining low by historical standards, not “elevated.” (bls.gov)
- The Fed’s own series shows unemployment mostly below 4% throughout 2023. (federalreserve.gov)
→ His causal story (“as unemployment becomes sticky at high levels…”) did not materialize.
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Gig / marketplace labor supply did surge.
- DoorDash reported that more than 7 million Dashers earned over $15 billion in 2023, and management described Dasher supply as “the healthiest we’ve seen,” highlighting 7M+ Dashers on the Q4 call. (ir.doordash.com)
- Uber said its “supply position is the best that it’s been,” with over 6.5 million earners in Q3 2023 and the number of drivers up ~30% year‑on‑year by Q4. (roic.ai)
- Airbnb ended 2023 with 7.7 million active listings, up 18% YoY, and more than 5 million hosts, noting “sustained double‑digit supply growth across all regions.” (news.airbnb.com)
- Etsy’s active sellers grew 29% in 2023 vs. 2022, a very large increase in marketplace supply. (investors.etsy.com)
→ The core idea that more people would participate on these platforms is borne out, even if we can’t attribute it to higher unemployment.
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Business performance: strong for most, mixed for Etsy.
- DoorDash: 2023 orders +24%, Marketplace GOV +25% to $66.7B, revenue +31% to $8.6B, with a huge improvement in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow—clear evidence it was a major beneficiary of platform growth. (sec.gov)
- Uber: company revenue rose from about $31.9B in 2022 to $37.3B in 2023, with trips up mid‑20% YoY and improving profitability—again, substantial business benefit. (venuelabs.com)
- Airbnb: called 2023 “another incredible year,” with record Q4 revenue ($2.2B, +17% YoY) and 99M nights/experiences booked (+12% YoY), plus hosts earning over $57B; listings and host base hit all‑time highs. (news.airbnb.com)
- Etsy: active sellers surged, but GMS fell ~1.2% in 2023 and has been essentially flat for several years; the company announced layoffs of 11% of staff citing “very challenging” conditions and “flat” GMS. (investors.etsy.com)
→ Three of the four platforms clearly saw strong business performance alongside higher supply; Etsy saw more supply but not meaningfully better demand.
Net assessment:
- The stated macrocondition (elevated, sticky unemployment) was clearly incorrect.
- The mechanism and outcome (more workers/hosts/sellers on gig platforms and stronger performance for major names like DoorDash, Uber, and Airbnb) were largely correct, though Etsy is a notable exception on performance.
Because key parts of the prediction were right (greater participation and strong results for most named platforms) while its explicit macro driver was wrong and Etsy did not clearly “benefit,” the overall call is best classified as ambiguous, rather than cleanly right or wrong.