Neel Kashkari did project that the fed funds rate might need to rise to about 5.4%; he reiterated this outlook in a February 7, 2023 CNBC interview, placing himself above the then‑consensus terminal rate of ~5.1%.(cnbc.com) In practice, the Federal Reserve did not reach 5.4% in Q1 2023: after hikes on February 1 and March 22, the target range ended Q1 at 4.75–5.00%, and was later raised to 5.00–5.25% on May 3 and then to 5.25–5.50% in July.(ycharts.com)

However, Sacks’s substantive prediction was about what short‑term T‑bill yields would look like in that rate environment: that they would be roughly 5–5.5% risk‑free. That part proved accurate. Data for 3‑month T‑bills show monthly average yields of 4.63–4.77% in January–March 2023, rising to 5.01% in April and then staying in the 5.0–5.5% band (about 5.01–5.47%) from April through December 2023.(otm.finance.harvard.edu) Similarly, the 1‑year Treasury yield averaged 4.94% in 2023, with an intrayear high around 5.44% and a year‑end level near 5.35%, again matching the 5–5.5% range he described.(app.macrotrends.net)

So while the exact timing/level of Kashkari’s 5.4% call in Q1 did not materialize, the world that actually unfolded—fed funds in the mid‑5s later in 2023—produced short‑term T‑bill yields very close to 5–5.5% for much of the year. Sacks’s economic claim that a Kashkari‑style rate path would make short‑term T‑bills yield about 5–5.5% risk‑free was borne out by realized 2023 T‑bill yields, so the prediction is best judged as right on its core content.