Last updated Nov 29, 2025
economyconflict
In 2023, Russia and China will conclude a very large economic agreement or set of agreements—covering energy, agricultural commodities, minerals, and rare earths—with an aggregate value on the order of $1 trillion.
I think there will be a big deal, not just on energy, but on agricultural products, mineral products and rare earth minerals… I think there could be $1 trillion deal between Russia and China this year.View on YouTube
Explanation

In 2023, Russia and China did deepen economic ties, but public data show no bilateral economic agreement or package of agreements between just these two countries valued around $1 trillion. Official statistics put total two-way trade in 2023 at about $240 billion, far below $1 trillion, and Russian PM Mishustin in December 2023 cited mutual trade of roughly 18 trillion rubles (~$200 billion) plus about 80 joint investment projects worth almost 20 trillion rubles (~$220 billion), i.e., a combined scale under $450 billion and not a single cross‑sector deal of the size predicted. (uk.finance.yahoo.com) Major reporting on Russia‑China relations and energy cooperation in 2023 and after—such as coverage of gas projects like Power of Siberia 2—likewise contains no mention of any $1 trillion Russia‑China economic deal, and the only trade figures around $1 trillion that appear in this context relate to total internal trade among all BRICS members, not a bilateral agreement. (ft.com) Given the absence of evidence for such a mega‑deal and the much lower documented scale of actual agreements and trade, the prediction that Russia and China would conclude a roughly $1 trillion multi‑sector economic agreement in 2023 did not come true.