Key macroeconomic indicators and official arbiters show that the U.S. was not in a recession in early 2023, even though the tech sector was under significant stress.

1. No official or widely accepted U.S. recession in 2022–2023

• The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is the standard body for U.S. business cycle dating, did not declare a U.S. recession in 2022 or 2023. Their list of business cycle peaks and troughs shows the last recession ending in April 2020 and no new recession dated through 2023–2024.
• U.S. real GDP grew in 2022 Q3 and Q4, and continued to grow through 2023 (annual real GDP growth around 2.5% in 2023, with positive quarterly growth rates). Positive, broad-based GDP growth is inconsistent with the claim that the overall economy was already in recession.
• The labor market remained historically tight: unemployment hovered around 3.4–3.7% in early 2023, near multi‑decade lows, with strong job creation—again inconsistent with an economy already in recession.

2. Tech sector weakness was real but sector‑specific

• Major U.S. tech firms (Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc.) carried out large layoffs from late 2022 into early 2023 and experienced significant stock price declines from 2022 highs. That supports the sectoral part of the prediction—tech was in a pronounced downturn.
• However, other major sectors (services, travel, hospitality, manufacturing in aggregate) were not in broad contraction; consumer spending and employment remained resilient. The overall economy was better characterized as a slowdown/"near-miss" or "soft landing" rather than an ongoing recession.

3. Why this is judged wrong rather than ambiguous

• The prediction is not merely that tech would be in a recession, but that “the recession is here” for the U.S. economy, just unevenly distributed. By now (late 2025), with full data and NBER’s dating, it’s clear there was no officially recognized or broadly accepted U.S. recession starting in 2022 or early 2023.
• While one can always define “recession” colloquially, economic consensus (GDP, unemployment, industrial production, income, NBER dating) does not support the claim that the U.S. was already in a recession at that time.

Because the central claim — that the U.S. was effectively already in a recession by early 2023 — is contradicted by subsequent data and official business-cycle dating, the prediction is best classified as wrong, even though the narrower observation about a tech downturn was accurate.