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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
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Jason @ 00:12:55Wrong
politicshealth
Jason predicts the following sequence for Donald Trump: (1) In 2023 he will go on a GLP-1 drug such as Ozempic and lose roughly 40–50 pounds; (2) he will be criminally indicted by Attorney General Merrick Garland (i.e., by the U.S. Department of Justice) before the 2024 election; (3) despite that, he will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination; and (4) there will ultimately be a settlement in which Trump agrees not to run in exchange for a broad ‘Richard Nixon style’ pardon covering his legal exposure.
I have a prediction for Trump. I think he's going to lose £50 on the Ozempic… I think he is going to be indicted by Garland… then he's going to win the nomination in 24… I think we're going to have a settlement. I think he's going to agree to not run and get the pardon.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evaluating each part of Jason’s chained prediction:

  1. GLP‑1/Ozempic and 40–50 lb weight loss in 2023 – Trump’s official 2025 physical lists his medications (cholesterol drugs, aspirin, topical cream) and shows a weight of 224 lbs vs. 244 lbs in 2020, i.e., about 20 lbs lost over several years, not a 40–50 lb drop in 2023. There is no official confirmation that he used a GLP‑1 drug such as Ozempic; media pieces only speculate based on his appearance and unofficial weight numbers.(people.com) This part is at best unproven and the magnitude/timing of the claimed loss is inconsistent with public data.

  2. Criminal indictment by Merrick Garland/DOJ before the 2024 election – Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Jack Smith as special counsel in November 2022 and authorized him to investigate and prosecute Trump.(en.wikipedia.org) Trump was then federally indicted in June 2023 in the classified-documents case and again in 2023 in the election‑obstruction case, both brought by Smith under the Department of Justice, well before the 2024 election.(en.wikipedia.org) Interpreting “indicted by Garland” as “indicted by DOJ under Garland,” this sub‑prediction is substantively correct.

  3. Winning the 2024 Republican nomination despite indictment – Trump clinched the delegate majority on March 12, 2024, becoming the presumptive GOP nominee, and was formally nominated at the Republican National Convention on July 15, 2024.(apnews.com) This sub‑prediction came true.

  4. Settlement where Trump agrees not to run in exchange for a broad ‘Nixon-style’ pardon – No such bargain occurred. Instead, Trump did run, secured the Republican nomination, and won the 2024 presidential election.(en.wikipedia.org) His federal cases were later dismissed or dropped for legal and policy reasons (special‑counsel appointment ruling, Supreme Court immunity decision, DOJ policy against prosecuting a sitting president), and the Georgia case was dismissed by a new state prosecutor; none of these outcomes involved any agreement by Trump not to run or any comprehensive pardon from another president.(en.wikipedia.org) There is also no evidence of a broad, Nixon‑style pardon covering all his legal exposure.

Because two crucial elements of the chain (the specific GLP‑1/40–50 lb weight‑loss claim and, especially, the non‑running‑for‑pardon settlement) did not happen, the overall prediction is wrong, even though the DOJ indictment and GOP‑nomination pieces were accurate.