Multiple 2023 data points and analyses describe exactly the kind of household “belt‑tightening” and reduced discretionary spending Jason predicted.

• Macro/retail context. S&P Global’s February 2023 outlook said that “belt‑tightening consumers” would weigh on U.S. retail sales, with real retail sales expected to be roughly flat in 2023 as high inflation and weakened demand strained household budgets. (spglobal.com) An October 2023 ACCA analysis likewise warned that “an episode of belt‑tightening by American consumers is emerging as a major threat,” highlighting run‑down excess savings, rising credit‑card balances, and the likelihood that many households would have to cut spending. (abmagazine.accaglobal.com)

• Documented household austerity behaviors. Kearney’s Consumer Institute Q1 2023 briefing found 69% of consumers reducing spend in one category to fund another and explicitly framed 2023 as a “belt‑tightening environment” driven by inflation and trade‑offs. (prnewswire.com) Company and survey data echoed this: Conagra’s CEO reported in July 2023 that Americans were “hunkering down” and buying fewer items as inflation squeezed budgets, (fortune.com) and Numerator’s 2023 SNAP analysis showed lower‑income households buying notably fewer groceries and trading down across categories to cut absolute costs. (globenewswire.com)

Although total consumer spending still grew in 2023, the emergence of a widely discussed trend of consumer belt‑tightening and austerity—especially in discretionary categories—is well documented. That matches Jason’s prediction about a notable austerity trend among consumers during 2023.