Available performance data for 2023 show that early‑stage private technology investing (seed–Series A) did not outperform other major asset classes.

The closest broad benchmark for early‑stage venture is the Cambridge Associates U.S. Venture Capital Index. For calendar year 2023, that index had a negative return of ‑3.4%, as venture continued to work through valuation resets, weaker exits, and a difficult fundraising environment.(cambridgeassociates.com) This is inconsistent with being the best‑performing asset class.

By contrast, major public and liquid asset classes were strongly positive in 2023:

• The S&P 500 delivered a total return of about 26.3%.(slickcharts.com)
• The Nasdaq‑100, heavily weighted to large‑cap tech, was up about 53.8% on a price basis.(nasdaq.com)
• Bitcoin returned roughly 155% in 2023, and financial press coverage explicitly notes that Bitcoin outperformed every other major asset class that year.(statmuse.com)

Within private markets, 2023 was broadly described as a weak year for venture capital: global startup and early‑stage funding fell more than 40% year‑over‑year, and industry commentary emphasizes a challenging exit environment and continued markdowns rather than outsized realized gains.(news.crunchbase.com) Even if early‑stage tech deals held up somewhat better than later‑stage venture on paper, there is no evidence they generated returns exceeding those very strong public‑market and crypto benchmarks, and the main venture index being negative essentially rules this out.

Because at least one clearly recognized major asset class (Bitcoin) and multiple others (Nasdaq‑100, S&P 500) had far higher 2023 returns than venture capital, Jason’s prediction that early‑stage private tech investing would be the best‑performing asset class of 2023 was wrong.