maybe this is the year we start to see that shift.View on YouTube
Market behavior in 2023 still treated the U.S. dollar primarily as a safe‑haven asset rather than as a risk asset. During the U.S. regional‑bank turmoil in March 2023, investors dumped risk assets and rotated into the dollar, explicitly described as a “safe haven” bid for USD, which is the opposite of risk‑asset behavior. (ofx.com) As confidence in the banking system returned later that month, the dollar fell as risk appetite improved, again matching traditional safe‑haven dynamics (strong in risk‑off, weaker in risk‑on). (investing.com)
Looking at broader correlations, analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) versus the S&P 500 shows a strongly negative 1‑year correlation (around –0.8) over the period spanning late‑2022/2023, meaning the dollar tended to rise when equities fell and vice versa—classic safe‑haven, not risk‑asset, behavior. (thesteadytrader.com) Contemporary and subsequent market commentary continues to classify the USD as a core global safe‑haven currency alongside gold and the yen, with investors still flocking to dollars in periods of heightened risk. (ecmarkets.mu) Because 2023 data and narratives show the dollar retaining its inverse relationship to risk assets and its safe‑haven role, the prediction that it would begin trading more like a risk asset that year did not materialize.