Evidence on short‑term U.S. government yields in 2023 matches Chamath’s prediction.

• 3‑month T‑bills: Average monthly yields in 2023 were already around his range and moved above 5% starting in April 2023; December 2023’s average 3‑month T‑bill rate was about 5.39%. (otm.finance.harvard.edu)
• 6‑month T‑bills: The 6‑month Treasury bill rate on December 31, 2023 was about 5.07%, right in the 4.5–5%+ band he described. (ycharts.com)
• 2‑year Treasuries: The 2‑year Treasury yield was about 4.58% at year‑end 2023, again within his “roughly 4.5–5%” range. (ycharts.com) Other 2023 data show 2‑year yields spending much of the year around 4–5%, peaking above 5% in early October and sitting near 4.7% by late November. (jpmorgan.com)

These are standard U.S. government securities, considered very low credit risk when held to maturity; price volatility on short‑dated bills is minimal, and even 2‑year notes carry much less risk than equities or long‑duration bonds. Over 2023, investors who rotated into short‑term Treasuries could indeed earn roughly 4.5–5% annualized with low risk while “waiting for things to become more certain,” as Chamath suggested. Therefore, the prediction is right.