Last updated Nov 29, 2025
markets
In 2023, technology stocks and energy stocks will perform poorly, and high‑yield (junk) debt will be the most pressured major asset class, experiencing significant stress and underperformance.
I think that tech will have a tough year. I think energy will have a really shit year, and probably the biggest asset class that is going to get pressured is going to be junk debt.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence from 2023 market performance contradicts most parts of this prediction:

  • Technology stocks: The S&P 500 Information Technology sector returned +56.4% in 2023, making it the best‑performing S&P sector, not a sector having a “tough year.” (visualcapitalist.com)
  • Energy stocks: The S&P 500 Energy sector returned ‑4.8% in 2023, one of only three sectors with negative returns, so energy did relatively underperform in a strong equity year and can fairly be called weak. (visualcapitalist.com)
  • High‑yield (junk) debt: The ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index delivered about +13.5% total return in 2023 (13.46% in one widely cited series), and Barron’s notes high‑yield bonds returned roughly 13.2% in 2023, outpacing core U.S. aggregate bonds and many other fixed‑income segments. This is strong performance, not “the biggest asset class that is going to get pressured.” (morganstanley.com)
  • Relative asset‑class stress: Cross‑asset return tables for 2023 show notable underperformers elsewhere—oil, broad commodities, and Chinese equities all had double‑digit negative returns, while broad U.S. bonds were positive—so junk debt was far from the most pressured major asset class. (visualcapitalist.com)

Because tech actually boomed, high‑yield credit performed strongly, and only the energy call was directionally right, the overall prediction is wrong.