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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
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Chamath @ 01:45:41Ambiguous
economyventure
The ongoing recessionary period will end around mid-2024, with economic conditions improving thereafter; startups should plan to have enough cash runway to last at least until the end of Q1 2025 to safely raise their next funding round after recovery begins.
I mean, I think 24 well, Ellen and I are kind of roughly in the same place we have been for a while, which is like, you know, mid 24 is when the recession ends and you need to give yourself 2 to 3 quarters of buffer so that you can go and raise around, which takes a 1:45 quarters. And once you start to get kind of get escape velocity out of a recession, having money through end of Q1 2025, I think is a is a minimum requirement.View on YouTube
Explanation

Macroeconomic data do not show a clearly defined global or U.S. recession lasting into mid‑2024. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook in January and April 2024 described steady but below‑trend growth (~3.1–3.2% globally in 2023–2025) with falling inflation and a plausible “soft landing,” rather than an ongoing recession that would “end” around mid‑2024. (meetings.imf.org) An IMF economist also said in April 2024 that the risk of a global recession was “fairly minimal,” again implying no clear recession to end at that time. (cnbc.com) Major banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley similarly framed 2024 as a normalization/soft‑landing scenario, not an exit from recession. (goldmansachs.com)

For startups and venture funding, the picture is different but still mixed. After a severe “funding winter” starting in 2022, VC investment fell sharply through 2022–2023. (spglobal.com) In 2024 there was a partial recovery: global VC funding ticked up slightly versus 2023 and U.S. VC deal value rose about 30%, but activity remained more than 50% below 2021 levels and was heavily concentrated in AI and top‑tier firms, leaving many startups and sectors still capital‑constrained. (reuters.com) Some regions (notably African tech) saw further funding declines in 2024, with analysts only talking about “cautious recovery” in 2025, which contradicts the idea of a broad recovery beginning by mid‑2024. (disruptafrica.com)

By Q1 2025, U.S. VC reports describe “bright spots” and “hope on the horizon” with the strongest exit values since late 2021, yet still low liquidity and weak fundraising overall, consistent with a gradual, uneven thaw rather than a clearly completed recovery. (pitchbook.com)

Because:

  • there was no officially recognized macro recession to “end” in mid‑2024, and
  • the startup funding downturn and its recovery timing varied widely by sector and geography, with only a partial, uneven improvement around 2024–early 2025,

it isn’t possible to map Chamath’s “recession ends mid‑2024, then you can raise with runway to Q1 2025” prediction cleanly onto the actual data. His runway advice turned out to be conservative and broadly reasonable, but the specific timing and notion of a single recessionary period ending in mid‑2024 do not line up neatly with how the economy and funding markets evolved. Overall, the call is best characterized as ambiguous rather than clearly right or wrong.