The prediction’s key claims are explicitly about what will happen “over the next decade or two” (roughly 2022–2032 or 2022–2042):

1. Energy costs: It asserts that the marginal cost of energy generation and storage will be in the low single-digit cents per kWh and make energy effectively free and abundant. While utility-scale solar and wind PPAs in many regions are indeed in the low single-digit cents per kWh range and battery costs have continued to fall, the global energy system is still far from “effectively free and abundant” in 2025; fossil fuels remain significant, and retail electricity prices for consumers are much higher than a few cents/kWh in most markets. (Multiple, evolving data sources on levelized costs of energy and storage would be needed to fully validate, and this transition is ongoing beyond 2025.)

2. Foreign policy / national security impact: The more substantial, time-sensitive part of the prediction is that this cheap, abundant energy will create a “massive peace dividend” and “rewrite our foreign policy” and “rewrite national security” over that 10–20 year horizon. As of late 2025, only about three years have elapsed since the prediction. U.S. foreign policy and national security priorities are still heavily shaped by geopolitical competition (e.g., with China and Russia), supply-chain security, and traditional defense concerns. It is too early in the 10–20 year window to judge whether cheap energy will eventually produce the kind of structural, durable “peace dividend” effect he forecasts.

Because:

• The prediction’s main horizon (10–20 years) has not yet elapsed, and
• The transformative outcomes (free/abundant energy + fundamental re-write of U.S. foreign policy and national security) are long-run structural claims that cannot reasonably be confirmed or falsified after only ~3 years,

this forecast cannot yet be fairly evaluated.

Therefore, the appropriate status as of November 30, 2025 is: it is too early to tell whether this prediction will prove correct.