Chamath’s prediction specified a 4–5 year period from 2022 for the true performance of the 2015–2022 venture vintages to become clear, i.e., roughly 2026–2027. The current date is November 30, 2025, which is only about 3 years after the prediction was made in December 2022. Since we have not yet reached the end of the 4–5 year window he gave, it is too early to determine whether his timing estimate (that it will take 4–5 years “to really sort out”) is accurate. Therefore, the correctness of the prediction cannot yet be evaluated.