Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Chamath @ 00:33:34Inconclusive
economyclimate
According to the IAEA forecast cited, by roughly 10 years from 2022 (around 2032), grid‑scale solar generation costs will fall from about $0.03/kWh to approximately $0.015/kWh, and when combined with storage the levelized cost of energy will be about $0.03/kWh.
So according to the IAEA, today, you can capture grid level solar energy for about $0.03 a kilowatt hour... And over the next ten years, their forecast is it's going to get to one and a half cents. If you then want to store it and you layer in, storage costs will be at a whopping $0.03 a kilowatt hour.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction is explicitly about costs ~10 years after 2022 (around 2032), based on an IAEA forecast: that grid‑scale solar would fall from about $0.03/kWh to ~$0.015/kWh, and solar + storage LCOE would be around $0.03/kWh.

As of today (November 30, 2025), only ~3 years of that 10‑year window have elapsed. Long‑term LCOE forecasts from agencies (e.g., IEA, IRENA, IAEA and similar bodies) typically give projections for 2030–2050, and current real‑world LCOE numbers for utility‑scale solar plus storage are still well above the $0.03/kWh combined level in most markets; many analyses place current utility‑scale solar without storage in the low‑$0.02 to ~$0.04/kWh range, and with storage significantly higher, depending on region and financing.

However, because the prediction’s main checkable date is ~2032, and we are only in 2025, it is too early to determine whether costs will in fact reach those levels by that time. The partial data we have now cannot definitively confirm or falsify a 2032 cost target; the learning curve for solar and storage costs is path‑dependent and sensitive to policy, supply chains, interest rates, and technology breakthroughs.

Therefore, the correct status for this prediction is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than right or wrong.