We haven't seen that much logo churn yet. But next year a lot of companies are going to start going out of business and it's going to happen over the next two years. So you're simply going to see logo churn rates, say, among small businesses, go from like a historical norm of 15% to maybe 25 or 30.View on YouTube
Public data on SaaS churn over 2023–2024 is mostly (a) aggregate across all customer segments and (b) reported as broad benchmarks, not precise time‑series for small‑business logo churn.
• KeyBanc’s widely cited Private SaaS surveys show median overall annual logo churn around 13% in both their 2022 and 2023 data, with no evidence of an industry‑wide spike to 25–30% logo churn during that period.(snohat.com) These figures are not broken out specifically for small‑business customers. • For SMB segments specifically, a Bessemer Venture Partners guide (about two years old) already described typical SMB churn ranges like 15–20% annually as “good,” with 10–15% or lower considered better, implying mid‑teens churn was already normal for SMB SaaS prior to or around the start of the prediction window, not a low baseline that later spiked.(bvp.com) • Newer benchmark articles (2024–2025) often say small‑business / consumer SaaS churn of roughly 20–30% annually is common, again as a structural norm rather than as a recently observed jump traceable to 2023–2024 macro conditions.(tomorrowdesk.com) • Company‑specific commentary supports the idea that SMB churn is structurally higher, not that it suddenly surged from ~15% to 25–30%. For example, ZoomInfo’s finance leadership in 2024 talks about natural SMB churn “close to 20%” largely because many small customers eventually shut down, but frames this as an inherent feature of the SMB segment, not as an unusually elevated rate unique to 2023–2024.(in.marketscreener.com)
Because (1) the best quantitative sources aggregate all customer sizes, (2) SMB‑only churn benchmarks are presented as broad ranges without clear pre‑ vs post‑2023 deltas, and (3) no sector‑wide evidence shows SMB logo churn specifically rising from a stable ~15% to a sustained 25–30% in 2023–2024, we cannot confidently say whether Sacks’s specific forecast about magnitude and change in small‑business logo churn came true. The timeframe has passed, but the available data are too coarse and inconsistent to judge the prediction as clearly right or clearly wrong, so the fairest rating is ambiguous.