The prediction concerns milestones in the 2030s (production-level, commercially relevant fusion pilot plants) and 2040s (grid-scale deployment). As of November 30, 2025, those years have not yet occurred, so the timeline cannot be confirmed or falsified.

What we do know today:

• The National Ignition Facility (NIF) has repeatedly achieved fusion ignition with energy gain in the lab (starting December 5, 2022, and with improved yields through 2023–2025), but NIF is a scientific experiment, not a continuously operating, grid-connected power plant. It does not constitute a commercial or pilot power facility. (annual.llnl.gov)
• Private companies are planning pilot and grid-scale fusion plants, but none is yet operating:
  • Helion Energy has a power purchase agreement with Microsoft targeting a first fusion power plant delivering at least 50 MW to the grid by 2028, and construction on the “Orion” plant site in Washington state began in 2025. This would be a commercial demonstration ahead of Friedberg’s 2030s estimate if it succeeds, but as of now it is only a goal under construction, not a demonstrated, operating plant. (helionenergy.com)
  • Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) plans its ARC fusion power plant in Virginia to deliver grid power in the early 2030s, with the SPARC demonstration device aiming for first plasma around 2026; again, these are future plans, not operating plants. (reuters.com)

Because:

1. No continuously operating, commercially relevant fusion pilot plant is yet online or delivering power to the grid, and
2. The prediction’s key time windows (2030s for demonstration, 2040s for grid-scale deployment) lie fully in the future relative to 2025,

there is currently no way to say whether Friedberg’s specific 2030s/2040s timeline will ultimately prove correct or incorrect. It remains too early to judge, so the appropriate assessment is inconclusive.