Only about three years have elapsed since the 2022 timestamp of the prediction, which was explicitly about a multi‑decade boom. That horizon (20–30+ years) is far too long to judge based on such a short initial slice of data, so the forecast cannot yet be classed as right or wrong.

India:

• India has indeed been one of the fastest‑growing major economies since 2022, with real GDP growth around 7–8% in 2022–23 and the IMF projecting growth of about 6.5–7% in 2024–25 and 2025–26, keeping it near the top of global growth tables. (imf.org)
• Demographically, India now has the world’s largest population, a median age around 28, and more than half of its people under 30, with its demographic dividend expected to last into the 2050s. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu) Large cohorts of young workers are entering the labour force each year (on the order of 10–12 million), and multiple analyses highlight that this young, relatively low‑wage workforce is a major driver of India’s attractiveness in global manufacturing and services. (medium.com)
• At the same time, India faces serious constraints—high youth unemployment, a very large informal sector, low female labour‑force participation, and significant skills gaps—which analysts warn could turn the demographic “dividend” into a missed opportunity if not addressed. (indiatoday.in) These uncertainties make it impossible to know yet whether today’s strong growth will become a multi‑decade boom.

Nigeria:

• Nigeria has an even younger demographic profile, with a median age around 18, more than half of the population under 30, and roughly 3.5 million young people entering the labour market each year—one of the largest youth waves in the world. (weforum.org) Demographers project Nigeria’s working‑age population to expand by over 100 million people in about 25 years, creating substantial potential for a demographic dividend, but also a risk of a demographic “bomb” if jobs and skills do not keep pace. (futures.issafrica.org)
• Recent economic performance has been modest rather than “boom‑like”: real GDP growth has been around 3–3.4% in 2023–24, with per‑capita income stagnating and very high inflation. (imf.org) Due largely to naira devaluations, Nigeria has slipped from Africa’s largest economy to about the fourth‑largest in dollar terms. (nairametrics.com)
• International institutions highlight high youth unemployment and underemployment and warn that, without major improvements in education, skills, and job creation, Nigeria may not fully benefit from its demographic wave for decades. (weforum.org) That means the conditions Chamath referenced (a very young, low‑wage workforce) are present, but there is no clear evidence yet of the kind of sustained, rapid growth normally described as a multi‑decade boom.

Overall:

• The core factual premise of the prediction—that India and Nigeria have large cohorts of people in their 20s entering the workforce at comparatively low wages—is well supported by current data. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu)
• However, whether this will translate into a multi‑decade economic boom for both countries cannot be determined from only a few early years of mixed economic results. India currently looks more consistent with the beginning of such a trajectory than Nigeria, but the long‑run outcome for either country remains uncertain.

Given the very long time horizon of the claim and the limited elapsed time since 2022, the correct assessment as of November 2025 is that the prediction is too early to call.