Jason’s claim has two main parts: (1) Japan will have a “contraction, constricting economy” driven by demographics, and (2) Japan’s place in the world will become very different from its historical role.

What has happened since December 2022?

Demographics: Japan’s population has continued to shrink and age. Government data show the population fell for the 13th and 14th straight years in 2023 and 2024, with a record natural decline (births minus deaths) and over‑75s now exceeding 20 million and continuing to rise.(nippon.com) Long‑term projections still foresee a drop from about 124 million today to around 87 million by 2070.(apnews.com) This clearly supports the premise of severe demographic headwinds, but that premise was already well known before the prediction.

Economy: Japan has had episodes of weakness, including a technical recession in late 2023 and the loss of its status as the world’s third‑largest economy to Germany.(cnbc.com) Yet over the period 2023–2025, real GDP growth has been low but mostly positive (around 1.5% in 2023, an estimated 0.1% in 2024, and a projected 1.2% in 2025).(imf.org) IMF projections out to 2030 show modest but positive growth (~0.5–0.8% a year), not a clearly contracting economy.

World standing: Japan’s relative economic weight has been drifting downward for decades; its share of world nominal GDP has fallen from about 18% in 1995 to around 4% in the early 2020s, and it is now the fourth‑largest economy.(asahi.com) That said, Japan remains a G7 country, a key U.S. ally, and a major technological and financial power. Its role is evolving gradually, not yet "very, very different" in a clearly decisive way.

Assessment

Three years is far too short to judge a broad, long‑term structural prediction about demographic-driven economic contraction and a fundamentally changed global role. Demographic pressures and some relative decline are evident, but the overall economy has not yet entered a clear long‑run contraction, and Japan’s international standing remains broadly similar in kind. The correct classification today is therefore “inconclusive (too early)”, not definitively right or wrong.