Most official and widely used economic measures indicate that the U.S. did not experience a “pretty severe recession” in 2023.

Key points:

• Real GDP growth was positive in 2023. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports that U.S. real GDP grew about 2.5% for full-year 2023, not negative as in a recession.
• No NBER-declared recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the body that officially dates U.S. recessions, did not declare any recession in 2023. Its list of business cycles shows the last recession ending in April 2020, with no subsequent peak/trough dates through 2023.
• Labor market remained strong. Unemployment in 2023 generally stayed in the 3–4% range, near historic lows, and job growth remained positive, which is inconsistent with a “pretty severe” downturn.

While there were concerns about inflation, interest-rate hikes, and some sector-specific slowdowns (e.g., tech layoffs, housing cooling), the broad macroeconomic data do not support the claim that the U.S. underwent a severe recession in 2023. Therefore, the prediction is best classified as wrong.