Chamath @ 00:17:32Wrong
politics
If Donald Trump secures the 2024 Republican presidential nomination (by activating his base in the primaries), the Republican Party will lose the 2024 general presidential election.
So the Republicans have to take this really serious. If moderate Republicans want to have a chance of winning, you guys have to figure out how to beat Trump in a ground game, because if his base shows up, he has a decent chance of winning the nomination. But then you will lose the general.View on YouTube
Explanation
Donald Trump did secure the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and went on to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating incumbent President Joe Biden in the general election.
Chamath’s conditional prediction was: if Trump’s base turns out and he wins the GOP nomination, "then you will lose the general" (addressed to Republicans). In reality:
- Trump won the 2024 Republican nomination. He dominated the Republican primaries and clinched the delegate majority needed for the nomination.
- Trump then won the 2024 general election. He carried key swing states (including several that Biden had won in 2020) and secured a majority in the Electoral College, as certified after the November 5, 2024 election.
Because the condition (Trump securing the nomination via his base) was met, but the predicted outcome (Republicans losing the general) did not occur, the prediction is wrong.
(Multiple major U.S. and international news outlets reporting the certified 2024 election results and Trump’s victory over Biden collectively support this conclusion.)