Donald Trump did win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, but he lost the 2024 general presidential election to the Democratic nominee, so Chamath’s conditional prediction matches the actual outcome.

• Prediction: “If Trump wins the Republican nomination, then he will lose the presidency.”
• Outcome: Trump became the 2024 GOP nominee and did not win the presidency in the November 2024 general election.

Because both parts of the conditional were satisfied in reality (antecedent true: he won the nomination; consequent true: he lost the presidency), the prediction is right.

(Based on the official, certified 2024 U.S. presidential election results reported after the November 2024 election.)