Public tech/growth equities had already been in a strong, sustained rebound well before the second half of 2024, so dating the start of the rebound to H2 2024 is materially off.

• After the 2022 bear market, tech and growth stocks roared back in 2023: the Nasdaq Composite gained about 43% in 2023, one of its best years in decades, while technology stocks rose roughly 59%, and the S&P 500 returned about 26% including dividends.(cnbc.com) This already constituted a major, broad-based rebound in tech/growth public equities.
• The strength continued into early 2024. In just the first half of 2024, U.S. stocks rose around 14%, with the move heavily concentrated in five mega‑cap tech names (Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple), which drove most of the S&P 500’s gains.(ft.com)
• For full‑year 2024, the S&P 500 returned about 25%, and market commentary describes 2024 as another “remarkable” bull‑market year following 2023’s big gains.(segalmarco.com) The Nasdaq Composite gained about 29.6% in 2024 and the Nasdaq‑100 about 25.9%, continuing an AI‑ and tech‑driven surge; by late 2024 they were near or at record highs.(investor.wedbush.com) Milestone data show the Nasdaq‑100 setting successive new highs throughout 2024, from 17,000 in January to 22,000 by mid‑December.(en.wikipedia.org)

Taken together, this shows that the sustained rebound in public tech/growth equities began in 2023 and was already well underway by early 2024, not just starting in H2 2024 as the normalized prediction states. The timing is therefore significantly too late.

On the venture sentiment lag portion, the picture is more mixed but broadly consistent with the idea that VC activity recovers only after several quarters of better macro and public‑market data:

• 2024 VC funding showed initial stabilization but not a full recovery: global VC investments were up only about 3% vs. 2023 and remained ~55% below 2021 peaks, even as AI deals surged and overall public markets were very strong.(barrons.com) U.S. VC deployment in 2024 grew nearly 30% year‑over‑year to about $209B, largely driven by AI, but fundraising into VC funds hit a five‑year low and exits/IPOs were still muted, implying cautious broader sentiment.(reuters.com)
• A more convincing rebound in venture deployment appears in early 2025: global VC‑ and PE‑backed rounds in H1 2025 reached about $189.9B, up from $152.2B in H1 2024 (≈25% growth).(spglobal.com) Crunchbase data show Q1 2025 as the strongest quarter for startup funding since Q2 2022, with global funding of $113B, up 54% year‑over‑year, and H1 2025 as the strongest half‑year for VC since early 2022, driven largely by AI megadeals.(news.crunchbase.com) That pattern—public markets strong in 2023–24, followed by a more evident VC recovery in 2025—does roughly match his qualitative point that venture investors wait for an extended period of better data before materially increasing deployment.

However, the core, time‑specific claim in the normalized prediction is that public equity markets would begin their sustained rebound in the second half of 2024. Given that a strong, sustained bull market in tech/growth equities was already underway from 2023 onward, with major gains in both 2023 and the first half of 2024, that timing is clearly incorrect. Even though his intuition about VC sentiment lagging public markets was directionally reasonable, the central timing call about when the rebound would start is wrong.

On balance, the prediction is therefore best classified as wrong.