Chamath’s guidance implicitly predicted that the fundraising environment would stay challenging enough that startups shouldn’t count on raising new capital until at least Q1 2025. That broadly matches what happened.

• In 2023, global startup funding fell sharply: Crunchbase reports total funding at $285B, down 38% year-over-year and the lowest since 2018, with deep cutbacks at seed, early, and late stage—clear evidence of a much tougher market than 2021–2022. (news.crunchbase.com)
• Through 2023, the slump persisted: global Q2 2023 funding was down 49% versus Q2 2022, and the first half of 2023 was down 51% versus the first half of 2022, with investors continuing to “scale back their pace,” indicating no quick reopening of the capital markets. (news.crunchbase.com)
• In 2024, total VC dollars recovered somewhat (about $368B vs. $349B in 2023), but deal volume actually fell and the rebound was driven by a handful of very large AI rounds; KPMG notes 2024’s Q4 funding was the best since Q2 2022, yet with the lowest deal count in over a decade, indicating capital was concentrated and selective rather than broadly easy. (kpmg.com)
• In Q1 2025, global VC investment hit a ten‑quarter high of $126.3B and US funding $91.5B, but this was again propelled by mega‑rounds like OpenAI’s $40B raise; at the same time, global deal volume fell to a record low 7,551 deals, showing that while a lot of money was deployed, it went into relatively few companies. (kpmg.com)
• Independent analyses of Q1 2025 show worldwide VC transaction counts down about 32% year‑over‑year, with around 58% of all VC dollars going to AI/ML startups, underscoring that most sectors and typical startups still faced a constrained, highly selective market rather than an easy fundraising environment. (en.tmtpost.com)

Because funding conditions remained historically tight, with depressed deal volume and capital concentrated in a narrow set of AI and late‑stage winners all the way through Q1 2025, advising startups in late 2022 to assume they might not be able to raise before that point turned out to be directionally accurate. Hence the prediction is best classified as right.