U.S. regulators did "take the FTT token issue seriously"—Sam Bankman‑Fried was criminally prosecuted by the DOJ and convicted on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy in late 2023, receiving a 25‑year sentence in March 2024, and FTX-related investigations by U.S. agencies were extensive. (en.wikipedia.org) After FTX, the SEC also ramped up enforcement against other crypto tokens and token sales: it brought major cases against Terraform Labs/Do Kwon over TerraUSD and LUNA, Kraken’s staking program, Binance and Coinbase over dozens of allegedly unregistered "crypto asset securities" (including SOL, ADA, MATIC and others), and Consensys over MetaMask staking. (debevoisefintechblog.com) So the first part of Chamath’s conditional—serious pursuit of FTX and broader token crackdowns—clearly occurred.

However, the more specific claim that this would lead the SEC and DOJ to "start to look at" and effectively investigate "some very well‑known venture firms inside of Silicon Valley" for their role in token creation and sales has not materialized in any public, verifiable way. Public SEC and DOJ crypto actions since late 2022 have targeted exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, Kraken), issuers or projects (Terraform Labs, Ripple, various NFT and DeFi projects), and intermediaries like Consensys, but not major Silicon Valley VC firms themselves as enforcement targets. (sec.gov) Well‑known firms such as Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Sequoia Capital, Paradigm and others appear in reporting mainly as investors, class‑action defendants, or policy advocates—not as subjects of SEC or DOJ enforcement or announced investigations into their own token‑structuring conduct. (coindesk.com) In fact, by 2025 the DOJ had disbanded its National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team and explicitly scaled back crypto‑related white‑collar cases, and the SEC under the Trump administration began dropping several high‑profile crypto lawsuits—moves in the opposite direction of an expanding probe into venture firms. (theguardian.com)

Because the core distinctive part of the prediction—that top Silicon Valley VCs themselves would become regulatory targets over token schemes—has not occurred publicly by late 2025, even though there has been ample time and substantial crypto enforcement activity, the overall prediction is best judged wrong, despite being broadly right about post‑FTX scrutiny of other tokens and token sales.