Jason said in November 2022 that we were in the “end game” of the macro mess and likely had about two to four more quarters of choppiness before conditions improved.

From late 2022 through about mid‑2023, conditions were indeed choppy:

• The Fed kept hiking rates aggressively from 4% in November 2022 up to 5.25–5.50% by July 2023, then effectively paused further hikes, which fits the idea of being in the late phase of the tightening cycle.【0search19】
• Regional bank failures in March 2023 (SVB, Signature etc.) created a serious bout of financial stress, consistent with ongoing market and macro volatility in that window.【1search13】

By mid‑to‑late 2023, there were clear signs of improvement:

• Inflation, which had peaked around 9.1% in June 2022, fell steadily; the year‑over‑year CPI rate declined from 6.5% in December 2022 to about 3% by June 2023, and average annual inflation dropped from 8.0% in 2022 to 4.1% in 2023.【2search2】【2search7】
• The S&P 500 exited its bear market on June 8, 2023, after rising 20% above its October 2022 low, and went on to return about 24% for full‑year 2023, widely described as a new bull market and a strong recovery from 2022’s losses.【0search20】【4search0】【4search2】
• Real U.S. GDP growth improved to about 2.5% in 2023 versus 1.9% in 2022, while unemployment stayed low around 3.5–3.8%, indicating macro resilience rather than continued deterioration.【1search5】【3search2】

Counting from Q4 2022, Jason’s “2–4 quarters of choppiness” points to roughly Q2–Q3 2023 as the point where things should start to look better. The data show that inflation had materially cooled, the Fed was at or near the end of its hiking cycle, and equities had transitioned into a strong bull market by that time. While not every macro risk disappeared, the overall direction of conditions clearly improved within his predicted 2–4‑quarter window.

Given this, the prediction that late‑2022 conditions would stay rough for a few more quarters and then improve is broadly right.