From November 2022 through November 2025, the United States did not experience an energy and economic crisis comparable to Germany’s 2022 gas crisis, which led Germany to nationalize Uniper and take over other key energy assets.(forbes.com)

In addition, after the November 8, 2022 midterm elections, the U.S. has had a split federal government: Democrats retained the presidency and control of the Senate, while Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives in the 118th Congress.(en.wikipedia.org)

Chamath’s normalized prediction is conditional and counterfactual: he claims that if U.S. economic and energy conditions were to deteriorate severely (like Germany’s 2022 crisis) and government were not split, then nationalization or similar extreme interventions would be a “realistic possibility.” Since (1) the antecedent conditions—Germany‑level energy crisis plus unified government—never occurred in the U.S. during the period after the podcast, and (2) he did not specify a time frame by which such a scenario must arise, we cannot evaluate whether his claim about what would happen under those hypothetical conditions is correct or incorrect.

Because the key scenario never materialized and the statement is about a hypothetical possibility rather than a concrete dated forecast, the prediction’s accuracy cannot be determined; hence it is best classified as ambiguous rather than right, wrong, or merely “too early.”