Chamath updated his view in November 2022, saying that instead of the worst being over by mid‑2023, rates could stay high and “we could be in this market till early 25.”

Interest‑rate path (“rates could be higher for much longer”) – largely correct

• The Fed continued hiking through July 2023, taking the federal funds target range to 5.25%–5.50% and then holding near that peak well into 2024, much longer than a mid‑2023 “all clear.” (forbes.com)
• The first clear easing phase came only in late 2024, with consecutive cuts down to 4.25%–4.50% at the December 2024 FOMC meeting. (jpmorgan.com)
• Even the Fed’s own projections in March 2025 still had the policy rate around 3.9% for year‑end 2025, versus a longer‑run neutral estimate just above 3%, implying policy would remain somewhat restrictive through 2025. (federalreserve.gov)
  Taken literally, the claim that rates would be “higher for much longer” and remain elevated into early 2025 is broadly borne out.

Financing conditions and “tough macro environment” to early 2025 – mostly not borne out

• By early 2025, multiple indicators show financial conditions were not especially tight. The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index was significantly negative (around ‑0.5), which the Fed defines as looser than average conditions. (fred.stlouisfed.org) A January 2025 Reuters analysis noted that despite a still‑high policy rate, markets, credit spreads, and risk assets pointed to “somewhat accommodative” or historically easy conditions. (reuters.com)
• For broad public‑market investors, conditions were far from “tough”: the S&P 500 delivered strong total returns of roughly +26% in 2023, +25% in 2024, and +17% in 2025, a three‑year run more consistent with a bull market than with a prolonged macro squeeze. (slickcharts.com)
• For private markets and startups, 2023 was indeed very difficult: global VC funding fell about 38% from 2022 to 2023. (news.crunchbase.com) But the environment began to improve before early 2025. Global VC investment rose again in 2024 (to roughly $350–370B, with the U.S. recording its third‑highest VC total in 20 years) and then accelerated further in the first half of 2025, with global PE/VC‑backed funding up about 25% year‑over‑year. (kpmg.com) That pattern looks like a funding slump followed by stabilization and recovery, not an unbroken period of severe tightness through early 2025.

Why the verdict is “ambiguous”

• One part of the prediction—that policy rates would stay elevated well past mid‑2023 and into early 2025—was essentially right.
• The stronger claim that tight financing and a broadly “tough macro environment” for companies and investors would persist all the way to early 2025 does not match what actually happened: by 2023–2024 the U.S. economy achieved a soft‑landing‑type outcome with strong equity returns, easing financial‑conditions indices, and a recovering (though more selective) funding market.

Because the forecast bundles an accurate call on the duration of high rates with an overstated call on the persistence of tight, punishing conditions for investors and companies, its overall accuracy depends heavily on how you interpret “this market.” That makes the prediction neither cleanly right nor cleanly wrong, so “ambiguous” is the most defensible classification.