Republicans did in fact win a majority in the U.S. House in the November 8, 2022 midterm elections, securing 222 seats to Democrats’ 213, giving them control of the chamber.【(en.wikipedia.org)】 That makes the categorical part of Chamath’s prediction (“Republicans will have the majority in the House”) correct. For the Senate, Democrats ultimately retained and slightly expanded their control, ending up with an effective 51–49 majority in the new Senate after all 2022 races (including the Georgia runoff) were decided.【(en.wikipedia.org)】 However, Chamath did not say Republicans would definitely win the Senate; he said there was a plurality/material chance they would. Contemporary evidence shows that this was true at the time: FiveThirtyEight’s final Senate forecast on the eve of the election gave Republicans a slight edge, projecting on average about 50.9 GOP seats (essentially a 51–49 GOP Senate), meaning the model’s most likely single outcome was Republican control.【(fivethirtyeight.com)】 Betting markets on election day similarly priced the combined outcome of a Republican House and Republican Senate as the most likely scenario, with odds around -250 at Caesars, higher than for any other House/Senate combination, which implies a clear plurality (indeed majority) probability for GOP Senate control conditional on the broader election.【(covers.com)】 So: (1) his concrete outcome call on the House was borne out by events, and (2) his statement about there being a ‘plurality of scenarios’ in which Republicans also win the Senate accurately reflected mainstream probabilistic forecasts and market odds at the time. Taken together, the prediction as normalized is best classified as right.