Republicans did in fact win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 8, 2022 midterm elections, securing a narrow majority (222 seats to Democrats’ 213). This matches the prediction that the House would “almost certainly go Republican.”

For the Senate, Democrats retained control: the post-election Senate was effectively 51–49 in Democrats’ favor (including independents who caucus with Democrats), after Democrats held all their seats and flipped Pennsylvania. Republicans did not win the Senate. However, the prediction here was probabilistic: roughly a 55% chance that Republicans would win the Senate. A 55% probability event failing to occur is fully consistent with the prediction; it does not make the forecast wrong, only indicates that the less likely outcome (Democrats holding the Senate) happened in this particular realization.

Since:

• The categorical prediction about the House was correct, and
• The Senate statement was an explicitly probabilistic forecast with a modest edge (55%) that failed in this instance but is still within expectations for such probabilities,

the overall prediction, interpreted as a forecast rather than a categorical claim about the Senate, should be judged right in terms of calibration and outcome on the main discrete claim (House control).