Chamath @ 01:06:12Right
markets
From late October 2022, broad U.S. stock market indices (e.g., S&P 500) will rise in the short term (over the next several months) before subsequently declining again, consistent with a temporary market bottom followed by another downturn.
I think the stock market is going up. Then it'll go back down because I think what David said is right. But for the short term, this thing is going up.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction was that from late October 2022, broad U.S. stock indices would rise in the short term and then decline again.
What happened:
- Around the podcast date (late October 2022), the S&P 500 was near the 3,800–3,900 level; it closed at 3,871.98 on October 31, 2022 after a strong +7.3% month, consistent with having just come off a major low. (statmuse.com)
- Over the following several months, the index trended upward: monthly data show mostly positive returns from January–July 2023, and the S&P 500 closed at 4,588.96 on July 31, 2023, roughly 18–19% above late‑October 2022 levels. (statmuse.com) This matches the “stock market is going up” short‑term call.
- After that rally, the S&P 500 fell about 10.2% from its July 31, 2023 close of 4,588.96 to a close of 4,117.37 on October 27, 2023, a move widely characterized as a correction and identified as the 2023 correction that bottomed in October. (statmuse.com)
So the market path was: up strongly for months after October 2022, then a notable downturn in the second half of 2023, which is qualitatively what Chamath described. Even though the later decline did not undercut the October 2022 bear‑market lows, his directional call—short‑term rise followed by another leg down—matches the realized trajectory of the broad U.S. indices. Therefore the prediction is best classified as right.