Elon Musk bought Twitter (now X) for about $44 billion in October 2022. (arstechnica.com)

Since then, available marks and transactions have never shown the equity value doubling to $88 billion (let alone tripling to $132 billion):

• Internal equity awards to employees in late 2023 implied a valuation around $19 billion. (arstechnica.com)
• Fidelity and related disclosures repeatedly marked X down, at one point implying a valuation around $9.4 billion (less than 25% of the purchase price) and a roughly 72% decline versus the original $44 billion. (fortune.com)
• In 2024–early 2025, new reports and secondary deals suggested a rebound, with investors valuing X back at roughly $44 billion, i.e., about what Musk originally paid, not more. (techcrunch.com)
• When xAI acquired X in an all‑stock deal in early 2025, the transaction valued X’s equity at about $33 billion (enterprise value ~$45 billion including $12 billion of debt), again far below $88 billion. (investopedia.com)

As of November 30, 2025 there is no credible report of X’s equity valuation reaching or exceeding $88 billion, so Chamath’s prediction has not come true so far. However, because he did not specify a clear time horizon beyond saying Elon would "probably" double or triple his money "over time," it remains possible (in principle) that the valuation could rise that much in the more distant future. Given the open‑ended timeframe, the prediction cannot yet be definitively labeled right or wrong, so “inconclusive (too early)” is the most appropriate assessment.