The prediction concerns a 15–20 year horizon from 2022, i.e., roughly 2037–2042. As of the current date (late 2025), we are only about three years into that window, so it is too early to judge whether U.S. federal tax rates on high earners will eventually reach levels that, in 2022, would be viewed as “exorbitant.”

Public data show that the top federal marginal income tax rate in 2022 and 2025 is 37%, similar to other recent years, and there has not yet been a dramatic shift to much higher, historically extreme rates (e.g., the 70–90% brackets seen in parts of the mid‑20th century). However, the prediction is explicitly about what must happen by around 2040 for the U.S. to continue to thrive, not about what would occur by 2025. Since that period has not elapsed, the correctness of the forecast cannot yet be determined.

Therefore, the appropriate classification now is “inconclusive (too early)”, not “right” or “wrong.”