Meta has, by late 2025, clearly adopted the kind of cost-discipline and shareholder-return playbook Chamath was referring to, and its business and stock have moved back into line with the mega-cap tech cohort.

1. Cost discipline and margin recovery
   After its 2022 slump, Meta pivoted hard to efficiency. In early 2023 Mark Zuckerberg declared 2023 the company’s “Year of Efficiency,” cut more than 20,000 jobs, and lowered its 2023 expense outlook by about $5 billion while also trimming capex guidance. (cnbc.com) By Q3 2023, Meta’s operating margin had doubled to around 40%, with Q4 2023 EBITDA margin near 47% and net margin around 29%, reversing the prior margin compression and putting profitability back in the same high‑20s/low‑30s band typical of the “Magnificent Seven” mega‑caps. (investing.com) This is exactly the sort of cost discipline and margin focus that defined the mature-playbook at Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple.

2. Shareholder‑friendly capital allocation (buybacks and dividends)
   Meta also embraced the capital‑return behavior of its peers. In February 2023 it authorized a new $40 billion share repurchase program alongside its cost‑cut plan. (euronews.com) In early 2024 it went further, announcing its first ever cash dividend ($0.50 per share quarterly) and authorizing an additional $50 billion of buybacks, explicitly aligning its policy with other “Magnificent Seven” names that routinely return large amounts of cash to shareholders. (business-standard.com) That shift from pure reinvestment to a balance of investment plus dividends/buybacks closely matches the Microsoft/Apple/Alphabet playbook Chamath had in mind.

3. Business and stock performance reverting toward the large‑cap tech mean
   Operationally, Meta’s ad business re‑accelerated, with 2023–2024 revenue and profit growth sharply higher on the back of both ad demand and lower costs, and its Family of Apps segment once again generating very high margins. (cnbc.com) The stock responded: Meta gained roughly 178% in 2023 alone—its best year ever and one of the top returns in the S&P 500—erasing much of the 2022 collapse and returning it to the front rank of mega‑cap tech. (cnbc.com) By 2024–2025, it was firmly a core member of the “Magnificent Seven”/trillion‑dollar club, with overall group net margins in the high‑20s and Meta’s own margins and growth profile in that same neighborhood. (kiplinger.com) One analysis even shows that since 2022, Meta’s total return has been almost identical to an equal‑weighted basket of the seven mega‑caps, i.e., its stock performance has effectively converged to the peer average. (priceactionlab.com) Valuation metrics based on forward cash flow also now place Meta in the same broad range as Alphabet and below (cheaper than) Apple and Microsoft, consistent with it being viewed as part of the same mature, cash‑generative cohort rather than an outlier. (fool.com)

Given this evidence—aggressive cost cuts and efficiency focus, large‑scale and ongoing buybacks plus a new dividend, and business/stock performance that has moved back into alignment with the mega‑cap tech group—the prediction that Meta would "revert to the mean" of peers like Microsoft, Google, and Apple has, by late 2025, effectively come true.