Chamath’s normalized prediction was that between roughly October 2022 and October 2023, the large U.S. Big Tech firms (Google/Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft) would see significant declines in market cap, employee headcount, and compensation/perks, ending the “big tech put” for talent.

1. Market cap outcome (core part of his claim) was the opposite of what happened.

• After bottoming in late 2022, the major Big Tech names led a huge 2023 rally: a Goldman‑tracked “Magnificent Seven” basket (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) showed 2023 gains of about +48% (Apple), +59% (Alphabet), +81% (Amazon), +194% (Meta), and +57% (Microsoft). (visualcapitalist.com)
• Alphabet’s Class A market cap was about $1.24T around October 14, 2022, and roughly $1.72T around October 13, 2023—up ~40%, not down. (statmuse.com)
• Apple’s market cap was about $2.4T on October 31, 2022 and about $2.6T on October 31, 2023, again a clear increase over the period Chamath referenced. (statmuse.com)
• Amazon’s total market cap roughly doubled from the 2022 bear‑market low to year‑end 2023; data from StockAnalysis show Amazon at about $857B at end‑2022 and about $1.57T at end‑2023 (+83%). (stockanalysis.com) Taken together, Big Tech was not “shot” in public markets over the following 8–12 months; instead it drove most of the S&P 500’s gains in 2023.

2. Employment and perks did get hit hard.

• Alphabet/Google announced layoffs of about 12,000 employees (≈6% of its workforce) in January 2023. (cnbc.com)
• Meta cut around 11,000 jobs in November 2022 (≈13% of staff) and then announced a further 10,000 layoffs in March 2023, totaling more than 20,000 jobs cut in that period. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Amazon disclosed plans to lay off about 18,000 employees between November 2022 and January 2023, then announced another 9,000 layoffs in March 2023, the largest job reductions in its history at that time. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Microsoft similarly announced around 10,000 layoffs in January 2023 (~5% of its workforce). (en.wikipedia.org)
• Perks and comp were scaled back: Google’s CFO detailed a multi‑year cost‑cutting plan in April 2023 that reduced employee services (fitness classes, laptop refresh cycles, some office amenities like certain cafe/micro‑kitchen hours, and desk perks such as staplers and tape) after the January layoffs. (cnbc.com) Apple delayed bonuses, tightened travel budgets, and otherwise emphasized cost‑cutting in 2023, and Meta had already begun rolling back some lavish on‑site perks (like free laundry and dry cleaning) earlier in 2022. (reddit.com) These developments match his expectation that Big Tech employment and perks would be meaningfully worse than in 2021–early 2022.

3. Net judgment. Chamath’s statement explicitly bundled together market cap, employment, and perks (“about to get shot… in the public markets in terms of market cap and employment and perks”). The employment/perks part was broadly right, but the market‑cap part—the largest and most quantifiable element—was decisively wrong: Big Tech valuations were much higher by late 2023 than in October 2022 and were again propping up the entire market. Given that the normalized prediction requires significant declines across all three dimensions, and one of them moved strongly in the opposite direction, the overall prediction is best classified as wrong.