From 2021 to late 2025, both Apple’s and Google’s mobile app stores have clearly moved in the direction Chamath described—away from a single, closed payment/distribution stack, toward more fragmented and open models—especially in regulated markets.

Apple (focus of the prediction)

• Reader apps: After the Japan Fair Trade Commission probe, Apple globally allowed “reader” apps (e.g., Netflix, Spotify) to include an in‑app link to their own website so users can create/manage accounts and pay outside Apple’s IAP system, a capability rolled out in 2022 via the External Link Account Entitlement. (macrumors.com)
• South Korea alternative billing: Following Korea’s 2021 law banning mandatory in‑app billing, Apple introduced an external purchase entitlement so apps distributed solely in Korea can use third‑party payment providers, albeit with a 26% Apple commission and some disabled App Store features. (macrumors.com)
• EU DMA – alternative stores and payments: To comply with the EU Digital Markets Act, Apple changed iOS 17.4 so EU users can install apps from alternative app marketplaces (third‑party app stores) and developers can use alternative payment processors or link-out payment flows, with reduced App Store commissions. (apple.com) By 2025, multiple independent stores—AltStore PAL, Setapp Mobile, Epic Games Store, Aptoide, Skich, Mobivention—are live for iOS users in the EU, distributing apps outside Apple’s traditional App Store “walls.” (techcrunch.com)
• Steering and external deals: The EU fined Apple €500m for restricting developers from offering apps and deals outside the App Store and then forced Apple to revise EU terms so developers can steer users to cheaper options on the web or in alternative stores. (theguardian.com) Separately, a U.S. judge found Apple violated an earlier injunction by erecting new barriers to developers directing users to non‑Apple payment methods, underscoring that regulators are actively pushing Apple’s model toward more open payment routing. (investopedia.com)

Google / broader app‑store ecosystem

• User Choice Billing and sideloading: Google agreed, in a multi‑state U.S. settlement, to support “user choice billing” (developers can show rival billing options) and to make sideloading from outside Play easier, explicitly to increase competition in app distribution and payments. (investopedia.com)
• Epic v. Google – mandated opening: After Epic’s trial win, a U.S. judge ordered Google to restructure Play: it must allow third‑party app stores inside Google Play, stop requiring Play Billing, and permit developers to promote alternative payment systems and sideloading options; the Ninth Circuit upheld both the verdict and the permanent injunction in 2025. (theverge.com) This is a direct legal deconstruction of Google’s app‑store/payment bundle.

Net effect by late 2025: compared with 2021, iOS and Android app distribution and payments are meaningfully more open and fragmented—with reader‑app links, country‑specific alternative billing regimes, EU‑only third‑party iOS stores, and court‑ordered structural changes to Google Play. While Apple continues to resist and these openings are often geographically limited and encumbered with new fees, the direction of travel is very much toward the “beginning of the beginning” of deconstructing app stores and enabling alternative payment and distribution models. That aligns with Chamath’s directional prediction, so it is best classified as right.