Evidence since 2021 shows both Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android have faced sustained, high‑level antitrust and regulatory scrutiny specifically focused on their platform gatekeeping role, in ways clearly analogous to the Microsoft Windows antitrust era.

Key points:

1. Major U.S. antitrust cases targeting mobile platforms

   • The U.S. Department of Justice and state AGs filed an antitrust suit against Google’s Android app store (Google Play) in 2021, explicitly alleging monopolistic control over Android app distribution and in‑app billing—i.e., gatekeeping over the mobile software ecosystem, similar in structure to the Microsoft Windows/Internet Explorer case.
   • In March 2024, the U.S. DOJ and multiple states sued Apple for monopolizing smartphone markets through iOS restrictions, including limitations on app distribution, browser engines, and payment systems; the complaint repeatedly frames Apple as a platform gatekeeper and seeks remedies to open up iOS to more competition.

2. EU antitrust findings and structural remedies

   • The European Commission had already fined Google in prior years over Android’s tying and default‑setting practices (e.g., search and browser defaults on Android), explicitly comparing the case structure to historical Microsoft tying cases; enforcement and appeals continued into the mid‑2020s, reinforcing scrutiny on Android’s gatekeeping role.
   • The EU Digital Markets Act (DMA), enforced from 2023–2024 onward, designates both Apple and Google as “gatekeepers” and imposes specific obligations: allowing alternative app stores and sideloading on iOS in the EU, loosening default app and browser restrictions, and limiting self‑preferencing in app stores. These are remedial measures directly aimed at their gatekeeper control over mobile ecosystems, strongly echoing the remedies and behavioral constraints imposed on Microsoft Windows.

3. Clear focus on platform gatekeeping behavior

   • Across U.S. and EU actions, the theories of harm and remedies center on the same kind of conduct that defined the Microsoft Windows cases: controlling distribution channels (app stores), defaults and preinstallation, technical and contractual barriers to rivals (e.g., browser engines, payment systems), and leveraging OS dominance into adjacent markets.

Given this record—multiple high‑profile antitrust suits and regulatory regimes explicitly labeling Apple and Google as mobile "gatekeepers" and imposing or seeking remedies to open up their platforms—the prediction that iOS and Android would face Microsoft‑style antitrust scrutiny and gatekeeper‑focused remedies is substantially borne out.