Evidence since 2021 shows that as climate‑driven disasters make insurance in high‑risk fire and hurricane zones more expensive, unavailable, or inadequate, U.S. homeowners are increasingly relying on federal money to cover losses.

• Rising uninsurability/underinsurance in high‑risk zones. A 2024 Joint Economic Committee report finds that insurers are pulling out of wildfire and hurricane‑exposed states like California, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina, leaving some areas “uninsurable” and many homeowners underinsured. It notes that FAIR (last‑resort) plans and gaps in coverage are growing as climate‑fueled disasters worsen. (jec.senate.gov)
• Greater federal fiscal role and reliance on federal assistance. GAO reports that from FY 2015–2024, appropriations for federal disaster assistance totaled at least $448 billion, with an additional ~$110 billion in supplemental disaster aid already appropriated for FY 2025 alone, and that disaster declarations and expectations of federal support have increased. GAO explicitly identifies the rising number of natural disasters and increasing reliance on federal assistance as key drivers of federal fiscal exposure. (files.gao.gov)
• Federal programs explicitly filling uninsured/underinsured gaps. FEMA’s Individuals and Households Program provides grants for home repair/replacement and other uninsured or under‑insured disaster‑caused expenses and serious needs, as highlighted in guidance to Maui wildfire survivors. (cca.hawaii.gov) In 2024 FEMA changed its rules so that, for disasters declared on or after March 22, 2024, housing assistance can be paid even when insurance payouts already exceed the previous FEMA maximum, specifically to address uncovered losses; FEMA expects Individual Assistance awards to rise as a result. (files.gao.gov)
• Concrete climate disasters where federal cash and loans covered property losses. After Hurricane Ian (2022), federal support to Florida totaled $1.74 billion, including $684 million in FEMA Individual Assistance and hundreds of millions in SBA disaster loans and NFIP payments to households and the state. (presidency.ucsb.edu) The JEC report underscores that when homeowners cannot rely on insurance payments to rebuild, they turn to FEMA and the SBA, and notes how quickly FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund was drawn down by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, necessitating large supplemental appropriations. (jec.senate.gov)

Taken together, these developments match Jason’s prediction: as climate change renders more properties in high‑risk zones uninsurable or underinsured, the federal government is indeed "stepping in" more often—through FEMA grants, SBA loans, HUD disaster housing funds, and NFIP payouts—to compensate owners for disaster losses.