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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Jason @ 00:31:14Wrong
Elizabeth Holmes has about an 80% chance of being found guilty at trial, and if convicted, her prison time served will be around 32.5 months (with an implied prediction that the actual term served will be close to that over/under).
I put her at 80% likelihood of guilty, and I put the over under at 32.5 months served served.View on YouTube
Explanation

Jason’s prediction has two parts:

  1. Guilt at trial (80% likelihood)
    Elizabeth Holmes was found guilty in her criminal trial. A federal jury in United States v. Holmes convicted her on four counts (three wire‑fraud counts and one conspiracy to commit wire fraud) on January 3–4, 2022. (en.wikipedia.org)
    Qualitatively, assigning an 80% probability to an outcome that did occur is directionally reasonable.

  2. Time actually served: ~32.5 months ("over/under")
    This part is clearly wrong.

    • In November 2022, Holmes was sentenced to 135 months (11 years, 3 months) in federal prison for defrauding Theranos investors. (fda.gov)
    • She reported to Federal Prison Camp Bryan in Texas on May 30, 2023 to begin serving that sentence. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • After routine good‑conduct reductions, the Bureau of Prisons has shortened her effective sentence, but she is still projected to serve about nine years total, with release now scheduled in 2032 (variously reported as August 16, 2032 or December 29, 2032, depending on the update). (theguardian.com)
    • As of the current date (late 2025), she has served roughly 2.5 years (~30 months) and still has many years remaining, so her ultimate time served will be far above the 32.5‑month over/under.

Given that the core quantitative component of the prediction—time actually served—is off by a factor of roughly three even after accounting for sentence reductions, the overall forecast does not match reality, despite correctly favoring a guilty verdict. Therefore the prediction is best graded as wrong.