Elizabeth Holmes’s federal criminal trial concluded on January 3, 2022, with the jury finding her guilty on four counts (three counts of wire fraud and one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud) and not guilty on four counts, with no verdict on the remaining three counts, which were later dismissed. She was subsequently sentenced to prison. These outcomes are documented in major news coverage and court summaries.

Sacks’s prediction was that there were greater-than-even (>50%) odds that she would be convicted at her Theranos criminal trial, not that she would be convicted on every single charge. Since the actual outcome included multiple felony convictions, his probabilistic forecast that she would be convicted at all was borne out by events.

Therefore, the prediction is right.