Friedberg’s prediction was about the YouTube version of All‑In episode E45 (video ID LNLcL5E95bs) getting a 6–10% downvote rate. The episode’s YouTube mirror is confirmed by third‑party summary sites like Glasp, which show the video’s title, date (September 4, 2021), and view count, but do not expose like or dislike statistics for that video.【7search1】

Between November and December 2021, YouTube permanently hid public dislike counts and removed the dislike field from the official YouTube Data API, so there is no longer an official public source for per‑video dislike totals.【12search0】【12search3】 Independent reporting confirms that only creators can see the dislike counts privately in YouTube Studio.【12search2】

There is a community project, Return YouTube Dislike, which reconstructs dislike numbers using archived data from before the API shutdown plus estimates based on extension‑user behavior and view/like ratios—its own documentation explicitly describes the counts as coming from a mix of scraped archives and extrapolated estimates, not authoritative YouTube data.【11search0】【12search9】 Although the project offers an API that can, in principle, return an estimated like/dislike breakdown for a specific video ID,【11search3】 this environment cannot safely query that per‑video endpoint directly, and even if it could, those figures would still be modeled estimates rather than ground truth.

A web search also did not surface any archived screenshots, blog posts, or forum discussions that recorded this particular video’s like/dislike ratio at any point in time.【7search1】【8search1】 Without access to the private analytics for the All‑In YouTube channel or a reliable historical snapshot of the exact like and dislike counts, the actual downvote percentage for this episode cannot be determined.

Because enough time has passed for the outcome to be knowable in principle, but the necessary data are not publicly accessible or reliably reconstructed, the correctness of the 6–10% downvote‑rate prediction cannot be established either way. Hence the result is ambiguous rather than simply “too early to tell.”