The prediction was conditional: if Nikki Haley ran for president as a Republican in 2024, she would be a serious contender with real credibility.

Haley did in fact run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, announcing her campaign in February 2023. (en.wikipedia.org) During the primaries she became the last remaining major challenger to Donald Trump, widely described as the “last, best Republican alternative” and effectively the only non-Trump option once other major candidates dropped out. (thedailybeast.com) She won the District of Columbia and Vermont primaries—becoming the first woman ever to win a Republican presidential primary—and ultimately amassed millions of votes and dozens of delegates to the Republican National Convention. (en.wikipedia.org)

Contemporaneous coverage and analysts repeatedly treated her as a serious, credible contender: e.g., New Hampshire analysis framing her as the anti‑Trump movement’s best hope and a potentially “serious contender against Trump,” and post‑Super‑Tuesday reporting calling her “the first serious contender against Trump in the Republican primaries.” (aljazeera.com) While some rivals (such as Chris Christie) publicly argued she was not a serious contender, that was a minority framing and itself confirms that her seriousness was an active point of debate in the race. (washingtonexaminer.com) Given that she ran, lasted as Trump’s only significant opponent, secured primary victories and substantial donor and media attention, Chamath’s claim that she would be a serious, credible contender if she ran is best judged as having come true.