Evidence from both polling averages and retrospective coverage indicates that Donald Trump, not Ron DeSantis, was regarded as the early frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination.

• The 2024 U.S. election overview explicitly states that Trump "was considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination," while describing DeSantis only as Trump’s main challenger, not the frontrunner. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Nationwide primary polls in late 2022 and early 2023 generally showed Trump leading DeSantis in multi‑candidate GOP primary ballots (e.g., many January 2023 polls have Trump in the mid‑40s to around 50% and DeSantis mostly in the high‑20s to low‑30s), indicating Trump held frontrunner status in the actual nomination field. (en.wikipedia.org)
• DeSantis did outperform Trump in some head‑to‑head hypothetical matchups in late 2022 and early 2023, and some commentary framed him as a potential or early favorite, but this never translated into a sustained lead as the primary’s de facto frontrunner. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw polls from 2021–2023 consistently had Trump well ahead of DeSantis among activists (e.g., Trump 59–70% vs. DeSantis ~20–28%), reinforcing Trump’s status as the party’s leading figure. (en.wikipedia.org)
• By mid‑2023, FiveThirtyEight’s national GOP primary polling average had Trump at about 52% and DeSantis at 15%, and when DeSantis suspended his campaign in January 2024, NPR and other outlets referred to Trump as “the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination,” while describing DeSantis only as an early favorite who failed to capitalize. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the broad polling data and contemporary characterizations consistently identify Trump—not DeSantis—as the early frontrunner in the 2024 GOP nomination race, the prediction that DeSantis would be "definitely the early frontrunner" did not come true.